I note with interest the amount of new kits being produced at the moment, not a day seems to pass but another new kit is announced. As a former British Prime Minister once said “we have never had it so good”. Manufacturers like Trumpeter, AFV, Dragon, Masterbox, Miniart, Hobbyboss, Academy and Tamiya have been prolific lately releasing some truly excellent kits to suit both WW2 and modern enthusiasts. Enough to keep us all busy for some time to come.
I was wondering with the news on Banking failures over the past few days and the on going credit crunch, will this have a impact on the amount of new kits being produced and will the industry suffer form people cutting back on so called luxuries such as their hobbies.
Maybe we should stock up on even more kits, to see us through the tough times.
Your Thoughts

Cookie

I'm no longer a regular correspondent on Asian business matters, but credit in countries like China is often raised "outside the norm." Some factories are owned by the government, some raise money on informal business networks, others with the developing stock market. Ford Motors yesterday scaled back their previously bullish estimates on automobile sales growth in China because of the stock market reverberations. But until we know how Trumpeter, Voyager, DML and others finance their business, their prospects seem excellent, as Chinese growth continues along at explosive levels.

Hopefully save me some cash and get me back to the bench to finish what I already have.

I honestly don't NEED to purchase another kit for some time...

For those who don't have stashes that will hold them into the next century, that may not be a bad idea.

Yes, there may be some serious fallout if the economy does tank much further. Where we'll really see this is a further erosion of the LHS. The internet guy who works out of his home will be able to last longer not having as much overhead. Reduced production would follow suit from reduced demand, Marginal producers could fold.

In the states, there really is a problem with people losing their homes. My wife volunteers at the local SPCA and she's seen a significant increase in people turning in their dogs because they've had to move to an apartment that doesn't allow them.

Gather more for the stash!

I'm with the Judge....

Can't have too many kits.... (insane laughter)

You can according to my wife!

Cheers,
Ian

"Too many kits" ... nope, don't recognise the concept.

Who knows how it will all fall out? It's all a bit circular:

Manufacturers may be in trouble if they rely on borrowing to finance new lines. I suspect the more likely outcome is a reduction in new kits rather than outright closures, but if demand falls off, that could happen too.

For sellers, if the underlying problem is in the mortgage market, most shops should have some insulation (and I'm not talking about the polystyrene variety that lives in our lofts) because they mainly rent their premises. If the place is so new that the landlord is still paying off the finance, there could be problems, but I don't get the impression that rentals have outstripped ability to pay in the same way that domestic mortgages have. Not this side of the pond, anyway. Our retail sector is wobbly but not, at least immediately, in really serious trouble. (Which is handy, since it's all we've got now that we don't actually make things.) Again, though, they need to sell things to stay in business; which leads me to...

For buyers, things could tricky. Job losses, pay cuts, increasing cost of living ... we're the ones who make the demand and so we're the ones on whom the others rely. Even if their costs don't increase, if their income decreases, that will cause problems. Only Time Will Tell how great the effect is. My advice: cut down on discretionary spending like food and stick to the essentials!

My only concern is that it will all but decimate the High Street model shop which is what gets most people started in the hobby.

I have had the impression from something I'd read many years ago that hobbies tend to be recession-proof. True or not?

Definitely don't have a stash like some or many of you... That said, I'm a modeler of glacial slowness, so just in the Dragon and Cyber-Hobby Panther and Tiger kits I've accumulated, I will have enough to work on for the next five years or so. I may pick up some aftermarket items here and there, but I'm pretty well set in that regard for these kits too.

I'm curious how the up and down and back up again price of oil is going to affect our hobby. All that Styrene, vinyl, etc. is based on petrolium products after all.

A decrease of economical power up to a recession is expected worldwide, but their effects will be different in each country or region.

In Europe (excepting GB) consumers, retailers and wholesaler who buy outside Europe do profit by a strong Euro in compare with the USD.

Many currencies (and raw materials like oil) are coupled to the USD especially of Japan and China/Hong Kong where this community look closer to in the nearest future.

As long as the US-Dollar decreases to the Euro and Yen and HKD follow, IMO European modelers won't be affected that much though our spending power might decrease within the next two/three years this crisis and its effects continue.

My work is showbusiness, I work at a large venue, and usually when there is a strong financial crisis for our industry it's the best of times.

People tend to save more money on holydays, new cars, going out saturday night, etc, and so they have the money to spend on concert tickets, there was a series of unexpected sold out concerts in 2002 right after 9/11.

I suspect that the same will happen to model sales, a little more money under the matress and more time to build and off we go....just don't let the wife suspect or you'll be in trouble

Well, I can say that the credit crisis / recession has done some damage to the hobby in my area. The last remaining hobby store that had been in business for some 26 years has shut its doors for good. He wasnt a very big shop, but he had no competition, plus he sold all kinds of stuf including lots of RC models, and also trains. I spoke to the owner about a month before he closed in this past spring, and he said that right after Christmas of 07, everything dried up. People stopped buying stuff. Owning a business myself, I barely survived this past winter, so I could relate. In Southern New Jersey USA, the economy has slowed so much, and so many people are out of work, its downright scary. You can see it during the rush hour drive to work now where there is hardly any traffic as opposed to the normal cursing and hollering ride to work I used to have. As for my modelling? Well, I havent bought anything this year. Ive been building from the stash and maybe buying some odds and ends like paint and glue and what not. But no model purchases for me. While theres lots of new kits Id like to buy, Im simply not spending the money, as having the extra money in the bank gives me a feeling of security that the economy has failed to provide. I hope the rest of you are fairing better

slow the amount of high priced dragon kits sold in the uk,force model shops to discount
these kits and order more resonably priced trumpeter/afv club!

My stash like so many others will easily last out my life time,but there are a few kits that are
on the"have to have"list so they will more than likely be purchased,but I have more than enough to keep me busy for years to come.LOL But we all know that there will always be that "one" kit we just gotta have,or some new tool,as long as my bills are paid I will probably
buy kits I deem"gotta haves"
Bob

I've got enough kits to last myself and several others through a nuclear winter. Modeling is a hobby that is normally paid for with disposable income. Even during times of financial crises, there are always a large majority of who are not greatly effected by the downturn. It just really effects a minority of people really, really badly.

The impact on modeling will be determined by which group gets hit badly.

With the mortgage and home loan crisis, if someone lives in a city apartment and does not own a home with a mortgage, the crisis is a non-issue. Likewise if someone lives in an urban area where public transportation is readily available or everything is within reasonable walking distance, then the cost of gasoline won't matter much to that population.

While Wall Street's problems effect business and industry worldwide, many folks who do not invest in stocks and who also work in a field that is minimally impacted, may not even notice Wall Street's losses.

Now, if you lived in a suburban area far from your work where you make huge luxury SUVs and drive one yourself and it only gets 10mpg and you have a large adjustable rate mortgage and your mutual funds were invested heavily in the financail industry...things may be looking very bleak.

I for one as a very small business know that this has all but destroyed me. My sales have dropped off to nothing. I admit that i felt my prices should have been a bit lower, i was urged by several hobby shops not to lower my prices but the good news for the buyers out there my prices are about to drop sitewide to try to combat the problems with the economy.
I don't think the larger companies like dragon etc. will hurt too much. but the average modeler out there will suffer if they want to add more to their collection i'm sure because following trend most companies won't lower prices but just the opposite. Models like every other non necessity will be put on the back burner if you don't have spare funds, which most of us don't.

Gary Smith
http://www.smithmilitarymodeling.com

My finances have tightened up considerably So I have started to put loose change in a jar - along with a dollar or two as my modeling money. Will take longer but hey it takes me months to finish a model anyway.

Personally, I would find stocking up on kits to be a waste of resources. The downturn in the market means that NOW is the time to invest. The market is projected to rebound in about nine months. In the market's history, there have never been two consecutive years where it not shown an increase. Now is the perfect time to plus up your 403(B), IRA, and for Army types, especially on deployment, to max out your SPD and TSP contributions. Taking the $169 dollars you'd spend on a Trumpeter CH47D and investing it now may mean not eating dog food when you're 65.

My stash will insure that my future progeny can enjoy the hobby well into the the sun's supernova phase, at which time the remainder of the stash will simply be absorbed along with everything else as we know it.

in my house modeling = credit crisis

I did see one message while I was scanning quickly through the thread about a hobby store closing. Nothing to do with the cridit crisis, everything to do with the internet. If your local shop has closed (and I'm not casting stones at anyone inparticular as I skimmed through without noteing the posters) and it was truley a modeling shop, that's the way it is and will be. Modelling stores cannot compete with the internet-case closed. The mere fact that it's posted anywhere on the 'net that "Oh My! My local hobby store's closed!" as far as I'm concerned the poster has done one of the following that caused the store to fail.
1 traded kits on a message board
2 bought a kit on ebay
3 bought a kit from an online store
4 bought a kit on a message board

So you really can't complain if your local hobby store's closed shop. You yourself have chose to shop elsewhere. I haven't been to a hobbyshop except to look around (they sell more than models) in 12+ years. The models are easily $6 to $10 dollars above anything I'd pay online. As a matter of fact I'll wait a year or more for someone to sell a kit (like the Trumpeter USS Essex that retailed for $120 or so I think) for 50% or less. (got the Essex on sale for $60) I've never paid more than $20 for any Dragon or Tamiya Sherman kit (I've been on a Sherman kick-just finished my 19th this evening) and have a limit of $35 for any kit. I can't believe that 1/48 F/A18 Hornets are going for $70!!! Are they freakin crazy??!! And that's online! I have some 2 Bobs decals for F/A18A/B/C's and got a deal from Squadron for Monograms Blue Angel kit at $6--Bingo! Gettin a B or a D'll be tougher but all I have is time. Sorry I got off on a rant but the bottom line is you have every right to complain about your local hobby store closing if that's where you buy ALL of your modelling needs. If you buy anywhere else on the net then you helped close the doors.

Mike T

Will anyone really stop buying models? Prolly not. Airfix and the like are well positioned to take care of the tight budget end of the market. We may well see manufacturers of cheap kits do relatively well for a little while.

I have seen many stash discussions. At my current build rate, my stash is good for 30 plus years. As I tell my wife, it is a retirement investment.

As far as oil prices affecting styrene. I'm a chemical engineer and can say the raw material cost of styrene is a small part of the overall cost of a kit. But when you add in the oil affacts styrene, the printing of the directions, the manufacture of the box, etc, etc it will add some.

I agree with most here in that the LHS will be hit the worst. Most are small and not doing well. Overhead costs are skyrocketing with electric and heat. Most will go the way of the dodo bird in the next year.

The overall effect on me....I have been buying less in general, mostly paints, glue, etc.
I will hunker down with my stash and try to weather the storm....!!

Rounds Complete!!

being mainly a 1/72 scale modellor ... i have never had it so good ... dragon seems to be slowing down .... but Trumpeter has a hole series of new kits coming out in the next 3 months that i am chomping at the bit to buy ... their is the likes of Academy, Revell, Pegasus hobbies, Italeri and Ace Models (i am not a fan of Ace ... but they are providing valuable service for fans of limited run kits of rare kits not covered by the major players as yet) all doing a excellent job in bringing out new kits and Europe has a new brand of kits coming to the fore from IBG and Maco's newly released SWS .... which is a absolute gem of a kit

I will have to turn down the heat in the winter, cut my food intake, drive less, cut the cable TV, and forgo the new winter shoes to buy the kits I want! LOL!